How we bring Dubai’s outlets on board, and what each route earns eGoal.
The model plays the next three years out hundreds of times, group by group. The event that matters is the first benchmark opening: five groups live, none above 40 percent of the set. Once it opens, every operator in that lane becomes far more likely to join, and volume follows. The plan below gets there fastest without anyone working unpaid.
What the numbers say
Medians at October 2028 unless statedThe trade-off, strategy by strategy
Each dot is one strategy: how likely the premium benchmark is open by October 2028, against what FoodSight keeps over three years. Up and to the right is better.
Ten strategies, the same market
Click a row to open it in the simulatorOutlets live: median, with the middle 80 percent of runs beneath. Benchmark: the chance the premium comparison set has opened. Unpaid: outlet-months eGoal connects and runs without being paid. Own pocket: the chance FoodSight has to top up eGoal’s fee from its own money.
Who pays what under the recommended plan
Recommended
Outlets live
Median, with the middle 80 percent of runsMoney in each month
AED, average across runsChance each benchmark has opened
By monthWho is live in October 2028
Outlets by basket, average across runsGroup by group
Chance each signs, under these settingsWhat each basket’s price does to reach and to money.
Pick a basket and the model reruns the market at nine prices, everything else as set in the simulator. The search below tries every pricing rule for every basket and keeps whatever does best on the goal you choose, using the same random draws for each candidate so the comparison is fair.
Outlets live in October 2028
FoodSight keeps over three years
Run the curve to see the response. The dot marks the price in the simulator now.
Find the best rules
Who to work first, and why the order matters.
Only so many accounts can be worked at once. The order decides who gets that time, and early signatures pull others in. Test the five patterns against each other, or move groups up and down and watch the simulator.
The current order
Top of the list is worked firstThe five patterns, with today’s prices
Dubai, group by group.
Outlets open in Dubai on the outlet research of 14 October 2026, each counted under the company that runs its till. Change a count, switch a group off, and the simulator updates.
What eGoal earns, and what it carries.
eGoal connects the tills, runs the platform and builds the benchmark engine. Under the terms on the table it is paid a fixed fee on every outlet that has paid that month. These figures follow the strategy loaded in the simulator.
eGoal’s income each month
AED, median with the middle 80 percentOutlets connected each month
Average, against eGoal’s capacityWhere each dirham goes
Per outlet a monthThe same plans under three ways of paying eGoal
Three years, 400 runsThe model in plain words.
It is a simulation of the Dubai market month by month, from November 2026 to October 2029. Each run decides, group by group, who signs, when their outlets go live, who stays when a free or founding period ends and who leaves. Hundreds of runs give a range, not a single guess. Every strategy is run on the same random draws, so the differences between them come from the strategy, not from luck.
The market
Every group in the outlet research of 14 October 2026 that runs outlets in Dubai, counted under the company that runs the till, in three lanes: premium dining (independent premium groups, owner-run hotel groups and hotel-brand restaurants), casual and fast casual, and quick service and coffee.
When a benchmark opens
A lane’s comparison set opens when five different groups have outlets live in it and none holds more than 40 percent of that set’s live outlets. Before that, each group sees only its own numbers. Several outlets of one group count once.
What moves a group
- Its starting chance. The chance of a signature within a year of steady work at USD 100, before any benchmark exists.
- Attention. Only so many accounts are worked at once; a group not being worked is far less likely to sign. After four months without a yes it is rested for two.
- Price. A lower price lifts the chance, by basket: free makes a franchised chain two and a half times as likely to sign, a premium group only a third more likely.
- Others. Each group already in its lane lifts the rest a little; once the set opens, everyone in that lane becomes two and a half times as likely to join. Landlords pull their tenants, kingmakers pull their peers, sister brands follow each other.
- Precedent. If anyone is free, paying prospects are ten percent less likely to sign, because they ask for the same.
Money
- USD 100 is AED 367.25. An outlet is billed from the month after it goes live.
- eGoal: AED 100 a month on each outlet that paid, plus AED 65 for the benchmark engine from the month after the first set opens. If a price is below eGoal’s fee, FoodSight tops up the difference; if an outlet is free, eGoal is not paid for it.
- When a free period ends, 85 percent of groups pay if their set is open and 40 percent if it is not. When a founding period ends, 95 and 80 percent stay. A paying group leaves at 0.4 percent a month once its set is open and 1.2 percent before.
- eGoal connects up to 100 outlets a month; an estate fed through one central feed takes a quarter of the effort per outlet.
What it does not do
- It counts subscription money only. Reports sold to advisers, lenders and investors would come on top, and are left out.
- It does not count Lean On Data’s own running costs or eGoal’s costs.
- The starting chances and the market behaviour are judgements, not data. That is why every one of them has a control, and why the answer page tests each strategy across many runs.
Sources: FoodSight outlet universe research, 14 October 2026 (Dubai, open outlets); the price agreed on 14 October (USD 100 per outlet a month); the term sheet sent to eGoal on 18 October (AED 100 platform, AED 65 engine, paid per outlet that paid); eGoal’s capacity of about 100 outlets a month (19 October); the comparison rule of five groups, none above 40 percent. Built for Lean On Data FZ-LLC. Not an offer; every figure is a model result.